Last Election
In the 2018 midterm election, DeFazio beat his opponent, Art
Robinson, for the fifth time. Taking a majority of the votes, DeFazio largely
holds the support he has received in past years.
Primaries Outlook
In the Democratic primary election, DeFazio defeated
his opponent, Daniel Arcangel, with just over 92% of the vote. As a well-liked
incumbent that has been in the House since 1987, it was not surprising he
defeat a political newcomer. Robinson won the Republican primary, but only with
46% of the vote. Two other Republican candidates each received about 20% of the
vote. For DeFazio, both of these outcomes looked promising.
General Election Outlook
Based on a strong primary victory and Robinson not winning
by a large margin, it would seem a given DeFazio would win the general
election. DeFazio took 56% of the vote, slightly more than in the 2016
election, but less than the 2014 and 2012 elections. Robinson, who has been his
opponent in all of these general elections, took 41% of the votes—his highest
percentage against DeFazio. Other parties took about 3% of the vote.
The only other time DeFazio took a lower percentage of the
votes was the first time he ran against Robinson in 2010, where he took just
under 55% of the votes. Prior to running against Robinson, DeFazio had won up
to 86% of the vote (1990) with no Republican opponent, and from 60-75% of the
vote when facing a Republican candidate. While DeFazio has won the past several
election, the declining margin of victory should be noted.
Current Prediction
Seeing as DeFazio is a career politician, he has name recognition
and the incumbency advantage, yet he is continuously facing an opponent who is
putting up a fighting chance to take his seat. Despite this competition, I see
it favorable that DeFazio will continue to win back his seat for as long as he
continues to run, but only by a small majority.
Campaign Finance Status
In the 2018 election, DeFazio ran his campaign purely on
money he had received from donations, not spending a dime of his own money. He
raised roughly $1.8 million from companies and PACs like Berkshire Hathaway and
Delta Airlines, only spending $1.4 million. DeFazio raised less than the
average raised by other House members, but spent just under the average amount
spent. On the surface, this may make him seem corrupt, but his voters know him
to give excess money from his own paycheck to his scholarship foundation to
help college students. Here is the breakdown of his 2018 campaign finance:
| Small Individual Contributions (< $200) | $303,761 | 17.00% |
| Large Individual Contributions | $438,409 | 24.53% |
| PAC Contributions* | $1,044,920 | 58.47% |
Major Issues
DeFazio is known to be a strong advocate for higher
education reform, funding programs relating to the environment, is pro-choice, wants
to decrease government spending, and largely supports international aid over
intervention. Having been in the House for over thirty years, he has not had to
portray his stance on issues as much in recent elections, other than issues
relevant to that specific election. His focus instead, as in the 2018 election,
is running contrary to corrupt politicians/President Trump, and advocating for
the Democratic Party.
2016 vote
In 2016, DeFazio received over 50% of the vote, but came out
with his third-lowest percentage of votes during his career. His district was
more in favor of Clinton for president, maintaining their status as a
democratic district in all races.
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